Incumbency is a strange and uncomfortable state when times are fast changing.

Long-established players may protest that they are changing, adapting or updating their products and services for some newly emergent market. The harsh reality, however, is that when the rules of game change dramatically – when the old game is eclipsed by something entirely new – no amount of ‘upping the game’ will work if the market realises the game is up.

Not all market sectors are as dynamic as digital access networks but, as they say in Chattanooga, ‘Not far behind is not good enough’.

There’s a world of difference between marginal improvements and total replacement by some distinctive new technology that is far better fit for purpose. That’s why the RSA’s Matthew Taylor, speaking last week at the NextGen 10 conference, declared that ‘this is not an upgrade’.

That bold position may have puzzled some delegates.  When, at the conference’s closing panel session, I was asked to predict the nature of the UK market in four years time my observations seemed to surprise – although, in truth, it doesn’t require much insight or imagination.  I was only suggesting that in four years time we might in the UK emulate the current experience of those in countries where they’ve already enjoyed several years of fibred freedom.

In practical terms, however, such ideal outcomes may well not be realised throughout the land. It seems entirely possible that places that currently clamour for the incumbents’ upgrades may have to live in the shadows of mediocrity for some time whilst other more-independent-minded communities might well hit upon a better way of organising their local utility environment.

Incumbents will, no doubt, argue that diversity is dangerous - that consistency is of huge importance. Possibly it is only an incumbent who might suggest that any aspiring access network designer would proprietarily announce a unilaterally disconnected declaration of local independence!  When used as an insult (or insulation) against change, consistency really is ‘the last refuge of the unimaginative’.

For any incumbent in this fast-changing environment the most valuable asset is time – so any excuse or good reason for delay is welcome –and their second most valuable asset is a large advertising budget. With intelligent (or ruthless) planning, with a compliant regulator or an ill-informed government, upstarts can be zapped before they’ve started up and, with luck, the entire market can be led to believe that lowest common denominating compromises are better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

But genies do sometimes escape from bottles. Travel broadens the mind and there is no need for citizens (or indeed their community leaders) to travel very far to discover different ways to develop community cohesion, civic-mindedness and sub-national economic growth – different ways that do not, fortunately, rely on market protection, massive entry barriers or discriminatory policies.

The acid test for government is whether they refuse to believe the stories put about by self-interested incumbents and look instead to the higher needs of citizens and wider society. They should take comfort from experience in other countries and know that if they do manage to keep an open mind their brains will not fall out.

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