In the coming decade of economic recovery all countries will seek to rebalance their economies. In the UK, for example, we have an acknowledged dependence on (and exposure to) the financial services and retail sectors.

We also generally bemoan the decline of our manufacturing sector – although this simple assessment is often over-stated, confuses volume with value and doesn’t fully reflect the quality of output in high-end engineering and design skills.

In the relatively slim field of candidates for determined expansion, economic policy developers have fastened on the creative media sector as a potentially rich seam to mine. The UK has, certainly in the area of film, TV, radio and music production, a talent pool (aided by language) that many would envy. We also excel as games developers, our inventiveness with mobile applications is renowned around the world and our advertising creativity also speaks to a global audience.

In terms of jobs and earnings the bread and butter of the entire creative media sector lies in TV production. Even US-based HBO choose to film their stateside TV series in Northern Ireland – such is our array of technical and production talent.

But looking to the decade ahead and the pace of technological development, this good fortune may not last. Take for example TV and the inevitable pressure to engage with audiences for whom broadcast schedules are an irrelevance – evidenced by the plethora of time-shifting gadgets that store and replay programming to suit individual consumer convenience.

As gadgets go they have improved a thousand-fold from the cumbersome video recorders of decades past. At the same time digital TV has improved the quality of output and HD and 3D continue that trend. But TV distribution with its inherent inflexibility and lack of real interactivity seems to be stuck in a one-way broadcast time-warp.

Where then should we look for innovation? Where should our most talented teams seek work and fortune in the future? We are used to phone-in programmes on local radio stations. How will affordable consumer-interactive TV, localized and relevant for each community, arrive in a time when there are huge pressures on the ownership and management of broadcast spectrum?

Recently published forecasts of IPTV take-up – TV programming delivered via high quality two-way fully-fibred virtual networks using Internet Protocols – would seem to provide some clues. 

The chart translates the 2020 forecasts of IPTV subscriber numbers across Europe into percentage take-up by households in each country.

There seem to be three distinct bands – above 40% and below 20% where laggards include the UK.

Leading the field we find France, Belgium, Sweden and the Netherlands.

The forecasts reflect both the dominance or otherwise of the current broadcast media and the availability of digital access networks.

Tim Johnson of Point Topic observes that, “The success of IPTV depends primarily on two factors. Firstly is it available, not only the physical network but at a price the consumer can afford? Where the cost and the link are suitable there is demand for IPTV as we’ve seen in France. However in many markets not only are cost and availability significant barriers but the incumbent TV services are well entrenched.”

He adds: “The success of IPTV in France compared to other countries in Europe and worldwide can’t be attributed to a single reason. A number of conditions exist which has made the diffusion of IPTV through the market much easier and quicker than in others, perhaps the main driver has been competition.

“France, with Free Internet as a good example, has much clearer and more transparent tariffs for IPTV and that has not only earned the consumers trust but allowed them to align the value they derive from the services with the amount they pay. It’s a simple equation but not the natural approach we’ve become used to from operators.”

And of course this is before we've seen determined market entry from Internet players like Google and Apple.  Even in radio broadcasting the demand for a fusion of audio programming with graphics via the internet is becoming daily more apparent.

If there are lessons to be learned here then they surely lie in two distinct areas of innovation – production and distribution.

It seems strangely shortsighted for the BBC to be shrinking back from its development of Internet offerings and at the same time for the nation as a whole to be plodding along at the back of the European race to deploy next generation fully-fibred high-quality broadband access networks.

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Notes:

IPTV 202 forecast data from PointTopic.

The NextGen 11 conference and exhibition (Bristol 15th & 16th November) will focus on the needs of infrastructure investment to serve all sectors of the UK economy - including Creative Media where the hosts (Bristol City Council) regard that as a flagship sector within their new inner city Enterprise Zone.

IPTV services will be profiled at the conference by the Ireland-based service Magnet.

Further detail and registration for NextGen 11 can be found here.

CONGRULATIONS are in order for the joint winners of the ITU's award for the world's first standards-based IPTV applications.

The winners were announced on 25th October at the ITU World Telecom 2011 conference in Geneva.

Eric Bréchemier based in France and Alève Mine of the 7 Days Gallery based in Switzerland walked away with a $5000 first prize for their innovative 'fine art and culture' IPTV application.

A Brazilian entry also won a second SME award.