The inquisitive souls who seem good at predicting trends are, more often than not, acute observers.  They notice and question the little tiny changes that most of us ignore.  But they also have this ability to see these detailed shifts in a broader context.

If we ever catch a fleeting glimpse of a very different future do we see ‘straws in the wind’, or do we cynically presume that this is just advanced wishful thinking - ‘clutching at straws’?

Most of our time is buried in the minute daily details of our chosen specialism.  Making the time to gather together other straws blowing around from distant places is dismissed as idle ‘day-dreaming’.

There are times, however, when our general state of glazed-over disconnectedness needs to be shocked by the cold shower of reality.  “Don’t you know there’s a war on?” was a familiar riposte during the early part of World War II.  It is still repeated today by frustrated souls seeing folks letting go of things they’ve not yet fully grasped.

Working out what is most likely to happen is a big part of business – especially in sectors where the stakes are high.  It may be well worthwhile watching the expert watchers in, for example, financial services.

Banking shares on the rise this last week was a good short-term indicator of soft regulatory times ahead.  But truly expert straw gatherers would have noticed that ‘functional’ rather than ‘physical’ separation in other regulated sectors is increasingly past its sell-buy date.  The old regulatory fudges – whether substitutes for five minutes thought or just a lack of enlightened and determined policy leadership – eventually break down.

It is the contradictions – the odd and unexpected events rather more than historical data – that fascinate the forecasters.  In all those discussions about Portugal’s future economy, have any economic experts noticed that Portugal’s recent investment in fully-fibred digital access has set them on a faster path to future prosperity and societal equality?  Is this an ailing economy clutching at straws or one seeking to emulate Singapore and Sweden – described by the World Economic Forum (WEF) as ‘the most competitive countries in the digital economy’ and ‘connected for growth’?

Is it ‘advanced wishful thinking’ that in the mobile data world one or two people quietly question whether the spectrum efficiency of an alternative Chinese technology might be the undoing of the presumed technology winners?  Regulators may declare themselves ‘technology neutral’ but will they rest easily knowing that they’ve yet again not considered intervening in the interests of enterprises and citizen-consumers?

Listening to the fervent promoters of yet another round of spectrum auctions none of them seem very keen to observe that in other regulatory regimes the last generation business models and out-moded technologies are no longer seen as relevant.  Continuing to fight the last war is surely a measure of the urgent need for a cold reality shower.

Bombarded by the massive promotion of the fibre-to-the-cabinet ‘upgrade’ fudge how many of us calculated the inevitable consequences of stranded assets and consumers tied up in future inflexibilities? Did we ask if long-term utility infrastructure really needs to pay-back in only 5 years?

Yesterday’s report from ECTA on the need for a ‘copper switch-off’ plan neatly coincided with the announcement from Fujitsu and friends that 5 million homes and businesses in rural Britain are now far more likely to be freed from the last generation copper legacy.

Calling the moment when attitudes flip, when reality demands a fresh approach, is never going to be an exact science.  On one hand the strengths of established incumbent interests seek to maintain the status quo.  Ascribing any real meaning to occasional contrary indicators can so easily be dismissed as ‘clutching at straws’.   On the other hand, ‘the straws in the wind’, when gathered together, can sweep away the old regime.

Who knows what weight of contrary indicators we can tolerate before enough is enough?

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Readers of this editorial also viewed ‘Good Morning?’, ‘Fitness for Purpose’ and 'Fujitsu and friends vote for FTTH'

This editorial was written for members of the UK’s Communications Management Association – a part of the BCS, the chartered institute for ICT professionals.

For additional commentary on the EU-wide debate on wholesale broadband pricing see the opposing views of ETNO (representing incumbent Telco's) and ECTA (representing alternative Telco's and new entrants) in this report by EurActiv.