Its difficult to understate the scale of the NGN technology upheaval.   It’s far more difficult to explain what it means for all those businesses who are not part of the telecoms industry.

For those with long memories this changeover is deeper, wider and truly more fundamental than the switch from DC to AC mains electricity supply completed in the early 1950’s.  That was simple – the new juice was juice – it didn’t come with umpteen different service options. 

The scale of the NGN transformation has yet to dawn on millions of customers.   If some of us are now beginning to wonder whether an all-IP life will be worth living, the first thing we must wake up to is a realisation of how little, as customers, we really know about what’s in store.  Emulation is a useful word.  We’ll be hearing it quite often as Operators seek to reassure us that they’ll make the new services pretend to behave just like the old ones – but with seamless upgradeability to something better if we so choose – “Trust us”, they’ll say, “we’re a Telco.” 

In line with top-down, centrally-planned, Telecoms industry traditions we hear the hype but must await with bated breath the unveiling of the new wonder-networks before we get a chance to ask ‘Why did they do it like that?’ 

In this all-IP world the regulatory challenges for network access provision, and the bundled service packages that ride above that, are just beginning to be considered.  It’s an edgy time.  Regulators have never found it easy to keep up with innovation – and even the biggest of corporate telecoms customers find themselves in reaction mode. 

Nor is it easy for the Operators’ designers and marketing managers to work out what will really take off.   Analysts generally agree that convergence hinges on hosted services – for example, using IP Centrex.  Despite plenty of early choices there’s not yet much evidence of large-scale customer enthusiasm.  NGN investments are largely driven by potential cost savings.  It’s more difficult to detect any great desire to deliver faster, better, cheaper services for customers.

The CMA is mapping the emergent NGN scene – pulling together the views of major customers and the legions of ‘Channel Partners’ who must understand this stuff on behalf of millions of their small business clients.  There’s an appetite for a new approach to consultation – a desire for a more open and collaborative industry attitude and a real wish to be more involved in business solutions design issues – not least of which will be security and resilience of all-IP services.  The technology may be jolly exciting for technologists but the CMA Conference in February will question, in the light of recent approaches to ‘consultation’, whether Ofcom is losing sight of its Primary Directive – a customer focus. 

Telco’s may be cracking on with realising their Next Generational dreams but thousands of businesses have yet to wake up – or may be just beginning to wonder if, unknowingly, they’ve been ‘volunteered’ for the ‘next great nightmare’.

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First published in NetworkingPlus, December 2005